Fractured Movement

Factions, factions, factions everywhere. The Conservative movement is fractured and split into different factions, leaving conservatives (largely) on the outside of political power. 

Fractured power is normal in politics. Political parties are full of factions battling for supremacy. During the 1992 elections, Pat Buchanan and the populists primaried the moderate GOP president George H.W. Bush. More recently, we have seen the populist factions of the GOP manifest themselves from the Tea Party to MAGA. The populist finally won, and MAGA is the established standard bearer of the Republican party, for the time being, at least.

The moderates are on the outside, and they have separated themselves into two conservative groups: Never-Trumpers, who cross party lines and vote for Democrats (NTDs), and Never-Trumpers, who won’t (NTWs). For the most part, these two groups have gotten along since the takeover, but NTDs are gaining influence, and it’s causing friction. But that’s not always a bad thing.

“A gem cannot be polished without friction, nor a man perfected without trials.” — Seneca

Principles First has been a landing spot for conservatives left out of the populist rise to power. Founder Heath Mayo started it in 2019 and, in just five years, has turned it into a “nationwide grassroots movement” at the top of the moderate faction. 

Prominent Principle Firsters like Joe Walsh are embracing Kamala Harris for president, while some supporters believe the organization has left its conservative principles behind with its support for the Democratic nominee. Mayo has patiently defended his position on X that Trump and Trumpism need to be defeated, and Harris is the best option at the moment.

The Democrats have welcomed the conservative organization. Principle Firsters Adam Kinzinger and Geoff Duncan, among others, spoke at the Democratic National Convention. Kinzinger lifted the crowd, saying, “I want to let my fellow Republicans in on the secret; the Democrats are as patriotic as us.”

I mean, I hope so; we are all Americans.

Every political faction has its preferred media. Jefferson and the Republicans had the National Gazette, and Hamilton and the Federalists had the Gazette of the United States. Aligned with Principles First are the Bulwark and The Dispatch. I myself have aligned with Principles First in a limited fashion, attending their conferences in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Although not part of the media, I’m a dad looking for representation.

While many from Principles First, the Bulwark, and some from the Dispatch have embraced being an NTD, others from The Dispatch and other conservative outlets like National Review have not.

David French of the Dispatch and New York Times recently wrote that he would vote for Kamala Harris. Saying he was doing it in part to “save conservatism.” Jonah Goldberg of The Dispatch politely replied. The first part of his response is a brilliant explanation of why arguments about voting are useless: that our Democratic Republic is far too complex to depend on one vote for success. Goldberg disagrees with French because voting for Harris is really voting against Trump. Goldberg would prefer to keep the argument clean and explain what type of candidate citizens should vote for rather than against.

The fracture between conservatives continued to grow over the weekend after Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark and Stephen Hayes of the Dispatch got into it on Twitter; I mean, X… Longwell went after Hayes over his comment about conservatives “fluffing a statist progressive Kiel Kamala Harris.” Longwell simplified the argument. Saying, “All your analysis simply ignores how dangerous Trump is. Beating him requires making an affirmative case for the alternative.” She challenges Hayes, saying, “Which scenario is more dangerous for our country and for our allies abroad? Trump winning or Harris winning?”

However, as Goldberg explained in his article, “America isn’t any democracy. Our form of government is distinct.” It’s not as simple as Longwell makes it out to be. It’s not about one person, one decision, or one vote; it's a multiplicity of decisions that brought us to the current moment. And a multiplicity of decisions that will lead us to the next one. The President is not the only power in government. Congress writes the laws, manages the purse, and provides executive oversight.

As the debate continued, Goldberg jumped in to defend Hayes, and Tom Nichols of the Atlantic jumped in to defend Longwell. Nichols makes the point that until Trump is defeated, “policy differences just don't matter.” Which he acknowledges drives conservatives nuts.

The public disagreements have highlighted the growing division between the NTDs of the Bulwark and Principles First and the NTWs of The Dispatch and National Review.

When I first attended Principles First in 2022, I was impressed. It was a mix of leaders from the media, political and intellectual communities, and followers from Main Street USA. The focus was on having better conversations around politics. The audience was encouraged to participate, and after the panels were over, the panelists provided guests with lots of access to continue the conversation.

However, with each passing year, the panels are given more time to speak and the audience less. As a result, the room has more suits and ties in it and fewer polo shirts and jeans. Many of the Main Street crowd seeking a grassroots movement have been let down. The last Principles First happy hour I attended was more of a business networking event than a grassroots movement. Leaving it’s Main Street followers to wonder, “Why am I here?”

Principles First is fighting the political battle in the executive’s sphere. This is what Longwell was doing, boiling it down to one vote and ignoring policy. However, it’s not just one vote and policy matters. Instead, the battle should be fought in the congressional sphere. After all, that’s where policy becomes law. Battling there creates more opportunity and makes it easier to stack up wins since entry to the office is far less expensive in donations and volunteers.

I’ve met many intellectuals and Main Street followers who attended Principles First with a flurry of talent. Unfortunately, Principles First has not been able to cultivate that talent into something more. Overall, I think Principles First has been a positive force, but ignoring conservative policies, supporting Harris, and failing to cultivate new talent has limited its growth. And now, it’s joining Democrats to get on the inside of political power. 

The more influence the NTDs have inside the Democratic party, the more they will become Democrats, leaving the NTWs as the only conservatives left. With Principles First having so many members supporting Harris, it’s boxing itself in, leaving an opening for leadership in the Never Trump faction. This vacuum will need to be filled. A possible landing spot for those left out is the Reagan Caucus. Their vision is the “restoration of the Republican Party,” aiming to “rekindle the spirit of true conservatism.” The Reagan Caucus has not boxed themselves in, saying, “This election is a difficult decision for non-populist conservatives, and we endorse neither candidate.”

More than what’s best politically and strategically, we must ask ourselves, what is best for the country? The populist wave that pushed moderates out was successful because Congress is failing to uphold its responsibilities. The executive branch has too much power, and average citizens feel unrepresented. Seventy-six percent of Americans disapprove of Congress. 

Principles First panelist James Wallner, is one of the authors of Congress Overwhelmed: The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform. He and many of the leading scholars believe that what's best for America is congressional reform.

What if the Reagan Caucus invited young conservatives to join and pitch their best plan for congressional reform? It could be a place to connect scholars with Main Street followers of unrepresented America, a place where ideas come to debate, and people make choices to shape the next moment.

A conservative movement will need a clear vision of what voters should vote for instead of who they should vote against to have the strength to rise above MAGA and not get sucked up by the Democrats. To grow large enough to compete, conservatives will need to lift new leaders into the movement.

If the Reagan Caucus wants to restore the Republican Party and grow the conservative faction, they will need to cultivate new leadership with a platform voters can support. The scholars and the people agree; they want to vote for congressional reform. Now, they need candidates and a plan of action.

For now, the conservative movement is still fighting about Trump and battling in the executive sphere. The failure to redefine the argument about conservatism and how it can help average Americans has led to the growing division within the faction. However, the friction in the movement creates an opportunity for growth. It's not unrealistic to believe that things could change sooner than later. NTWs looking for a place to land should find refuge in the Reagan Caucus and keep reading The Dispatch and National Review. If you are looking for hope, and new leaders to lift up, check out The Freemen News-Letter an up-and-coming outlet spearheaded by some very talented people.